CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-06-03T01:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-03T01:53Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46585/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the E in STEREO A COR2 starting at 2026-06-03T01:53Z. It is also faintly seen as a halo to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 but is partially obscured by the pylon. It is also seen as a halo to the NW in GOES CCOR-1. This CME is associated with an M9.3 class flare from AR 14455 (N13W10) that peaked at 2026-06-03T01:36Z. The flare can best be seen in SDO AIA 131. L1 arrival is likely to be 3 merged CMES 2026-06-03T11:48Z, 2026-06-03T07:23Z, 026-06-03T01:53Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-06-05T04:23Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-06-04T18:33Z (-6.33h, +6.33h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 97.0%
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:

CME input parameters:
Apex direction (deg): 19.0
Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7
Angular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 32

initial CME speed: 1390.0 (+/- 50) km/s
initial height: 21.5 R_sun
initial time: 2026-06-03T04:03Z
drag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km 
ambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s
time step: 10 min
ensemble members: 50k

Lead Time: 41.08 hour(s)
Difference: 9.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Eva Weiler (ASWO) on 2026-06-03T11:18Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy